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Which Nominee the Best Shot at the Oscar - 'American Hustle,' '12 Years a Slave,' or 'Gravity'?

By Julia Emmanuele, Hollywood Staff

Another weekend, another awards show, and another chance to predict the outcome of the Oscar race. This time, however, a wrench was thrown into the works when three different films took home the Best Picture title from two different academies, both of whom are considered to be excellent indicators of the Oscar race. On Saturday, the SAG Awards awarded American Hustle with Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. Traditionally, the film that wins the top prize at the SAGs takes home Best Picture on Oscar night - although in recent years, their choices have not always lined up perfectly with the Academy. But before anyone had the chance to officially declare American Hustle to be the new front runner, the Producers Guild Awards hit back on Sunday, when they declared the Best Picture of the year to be a tie between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. And just like that, the Oscar race was once again, anyone's game.

However, over the course of awards season, its become clear that the final fight for the Best Picture Oscar will come down to those three films. Last week, we aimed to predict which film had the best shot at the award based on title alone. But now, we're moving onto more substantial matters. We've seen that flashy performances entertain SAG-AFTRA, while emotional impact carries more weight with the Producers Guild, but what about the Academy? We've decided that the best way to find out is to look back at the history of the awards, and compare the previous winners to the current front runners in order to determine which one will best appeal to the Academy's sensibilities.